harris c dead as a doornail

A practical guide to understanding economic forecasts In Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts, UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts. The book: Provides insights from Maury Harris, named among Bloomberg's 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance. Demonstrates «best practices» in the assembly and evaluation of forecasts. Harris walks readers through the real-life steps he and other successful forecasters take in preparing their projections. These valuable procedures can help forecast users evaluate forecasts and forecasters as inputs for making their own specific business and investment decisions. Emphasizes the critical role of judgment in improving projections derived from purely statistical methodologies. Harris explores the prerequisites for sound forecasting judgment—a good sense of history and an understanding of contemporary theoretical frameworks—in readable and illuminating detail. Addresses everyday forecasting issues, including the credibility of government statistics and analyses, fickle consumers, and volatile business spirits. Harris also offers procedural guidelines for special circumstances, such as natural disasters, terrorist threats, gyrating oil and stock prices, and international economic crises. Evaluates major contemporary forecasting issues—including the now commonplace hypothesis of sustained economic sluggishness, possible inflation outcomes in an environment of falling unemployment, and projecting interest rates when central banks implement unprecedented low interest rate and quantitative easing (QE) policies. Brings to life Harris's own experiences and those of other leading economists in his almost four-decade career as a professional economist and forecaster. Dr. Harris presents his personal recipes for long-term credibility and commercial success to anyone offering advice about the future.



Что искали на сайте
кружка printio пионы | dsquared2 пляжные брюки и шорты | cs 12 24 in s hook s hook not include pot | 110cm wide wedding dress lace embroidery diy women clothes materials clothing fabric accessories ivory white church happy hour | printio soviet tank | faux pearl espadrille flatform sliders | linux® administrator street smarts | best deal quartz watch women fashion tower pattern diamond dial watches men faux leather watch women s dress clock montre relo | 14pcs set stainless steel dumplings wrappers cutter maker tools cake moulds mousse ring round stainless steel cookie molds set | брюки fiorella rubino fiorella rubino fi013ewbeeg7 | cute resin bride and bridegroom toy doll | резиновые сапоги playtoday playtoday mp002xg006pn | autumn summer new women shirt dress long sleeved female dresses slim fashion party office lady sundress plus size casual rob | 350a 500a gas welding gun shunt connecting rod insulation cover bent pipe nozzle gas welding gun accessories welder gun parts | creative fun cheese snacks pu pocketbook coin bag girls purse small canvas purse cat coin purse | len deighton spy line | лампа энергосберегающая tdm sq0323 0054 | motorcycle atv riding scooter driving flying protective frame clear lens portable vintage helmet goggles glasses for 2009 buell xb12r | skeleton skull head silicone chocolate muffin cupcake candy ice cube mold halloween | issey miyake l eau d issey pour homme summer edition eau de toilette | macarons ceiling lamps rose colors metal lamp body acrylic lamp shade colorful post modern ceiling light led lighting fixture | батарейка perfeo алкалиновая pf lr6 4sh | кеды y | deadly animals | the shining |